I don’t know what was worse for bettors who had the Houston Texans favored by 2½ points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9: seeing the Bucs score the go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute left or watching the Texans go ahead by two with six seconds left, only to kneel on the ball during the subsequent conversion attempt because their kicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, suffered a quad injury in the first half. The final score, 39-37, left the Texans just short of a cover and Texans bettors with a truly nasty beat.

That wasn’t the only disappointment last week. It appeared Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts aggravated his knee in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys, but that wasn’t enough to stop him from rushing the ball 10 times for 36 yards in an Eagles win. That put Hurts over the total of 30.5 rushing yards and gave us another dose of crushed dreams.

Speaking of crushing dreams: According to OptaSTATS, the New York Jets became the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have its defense sack the opposing quarterback at least five times, hold its opponent to less than 200 yards and not allow any explosive plays of 25 or more yards — and still lose by at least 20 points. Obviously, the Jets getting 3½ points against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night wasn’t enough, adding one more loss to our disappointing ledger.

The Jets are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have their defense collect 5+ sacks, hold the opponent to under 200 yards and not allow any 25+ yard plays and yet lose the game by 20+ points.

It has been a remarkable run since my 5-0 start to the season. Even if the games I picked had just a 30 percent chance of winning, the probability of me going 1-9 over the next 10 games is about 13 percent. Maybe I am being punished for having San Diego State in the final of my March Madness bracket. Hopefully, it will be smoother sailing from here on out.

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Best bets record: 6-9

Player prop record: 5-4

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. Check back later in the week for a potential player prop.

Bye week: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: 49ers -3, playable to -5 if Deebo Samuel returns

The 49ers should look a lot different in Jacksonville than they have during their recent three-game losing streak. San Francisco traded for Chase Young last week to boost its struggling pass rush, and reports suggest that wide receiver Deebo Samuel will return after a two-game hiatus with a shoulder injury.

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Young was having a solid year for Washington, with five sacks and a 25 percent pass rush win rate at edge, per ESPN’s Seth Walder, a rate higher than he had in 2020, when Young was the defensive rookie of the year. Before the trade, the 49ers’ pass rush ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate, which measures sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt, adjusted for down, distance and opponent.

On the other side of the ball, you can’t overstate what Samuel means to the 49ers’ offense. With him on the field, San Francisco is averaging 6.9 yards per play and converting 84 percent of down series into another first down or a touchdown. Those figures drop to 5.4 yards and 71 percent when he hasn’t been on the field. In other words, the 49ers have a top-tier offense with Samuel and an average offense without him. It’s also possible left tackle Trent Williams will return after missing the past two games, giving the 49ers (and their backers) even more reason to be optimistic about Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7½)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN

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Pick: Under 47, playable to under 46 (Broncos +7½ is the pick, but it’s not a best bet.)

Let’s set the stage: NFL unders are 83-51-2 this season for a 62 percent win rate, the best through nine weeks since 2002. “Monday Night Football” unders are 10-1 in 2023, failing to go over by an average of 7.5 points per game. There have been two games this season in which both teams were coming off extended rest: the Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers in Week 6 and the Carolina Panthers vs. the Houston Texans in Week 8. Both games went under, by an average of 11.5 points.

Now on to this Monday’s teams. Denver’s defense has vastly improved since the start of the season. Over the first three weeks, the Broncos were surrendering 20.5 more points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. Since then, Denver’s opponents are scoring one point fewer than expected per game.

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Over in Buffalo, meantime, something isn’t right with quarterback Josh Allen since he tweaked his throwing shoulder in Week 6 (an injury he aggravated in Week 8). He was averaging 7.8 net yards per pass before the injury but is averaging just 6.6 net yards per pass since; the league average is 6.5. He’s also 3 for 20 on deep passes (covering 20 or more air yards) since Week 6, limiting the explosiveness of Buffalo’s offense. It all points to another Monday night under.

The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

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Pick: Bears -4 (This number has since moved down.)

Indianapolis Colts (-1½) vs. New England Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. | NFL Network

Pick: Colts -1½

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Ravens -6

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Packers +3

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Texans +7

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Vikings +2½ (This number has since moved up.)

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Titans +1

Atlanta Falcons (-1½) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Cardinals +1½, playable to pick ’em

Detroit Lions (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Lions -2½ (This number has since moved up.)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16½)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Cowboys -16½

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Seahawks -6

New York Jets (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC

Pick: Raiders +1½ (This number has since moved down.)

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